Nate Erskine—Smith weighs another bid for Ontario Liberal leadership

Federal Liberal MP Nate Erskine—Smith is signalling he may again seek the leadership of the Ontario Liberal Party, launching a new sign-up page and hinting at renewed interest in rebuilding the party ahead of the next provincial election.

The website, which encourages supporters to “join our growing team,” states Erskine-Smith is exploring another run and frames the effort around renewal, participation, and unity.

“Everything depends on the strength of our team. One team. Ready to run, win, and govern together,” the landing page reads.

Though not an official campaign announcement, the move suggests Erskine—Smith is actively preparing for the possibility of entering the contest once the leadership race is formally triggered.

Looking back, and ahead

Erskine—Smith previously sought the Ontario Liberal leadership in 2023, finishing behind Bonnie Crombie in a ranked-ballot race that saw several high-profile contenders vying to rebuild the party after its historic decline. While he did not secure the top spot, his campaign attracted younger members, emphasized grassroots engagement, and positioned him as a voice for generational change inside the party.

His latest message echoes many of those themes—modernization, transparency, and a push for a more participatory political culture.

In a recent Substack post, Erskine—Smith referred to the upcoming leadership question as the “biggest question mark for 2026,” calling it a chance to make a meaningful impact. He argued it is “past time for change,” and took direct aim at the Ford government, criticizing what he described as “mediocrity, incompetence, and corruption, even if it’s folksy.”

The post also makes clear that timing remains uncertain, noting that the team will assess whether to move forward when the race is officially called, and that participation from supporters will help shape that decision.

Changing landscape for Liberals

The Ontario Liberals continue to face steep challenges after consecutive election losses left the party struggling to regain momentum. Despite modest seat gains in the last provincial campaign, the party remains far behind Premier Doug Ford's PC government.

Since the last leadership race, issues such as housing affordability, healthcare strain, education funding, and cost-of-living pressures have intensified. Any contender would be expected to demonstrate credibility not only in rebuilding party infrastructure but on offering a clear plan to govern.

Erskine—Smith has long portrayed himself as pragmatic yet reform-minded, often breaking party ranks during his federal career on conscience and policy questions. Supporters say that independence is an asset. Critics question whether it will resonate beyond urban strongholds and into regions where Liberals have struggled.For now, Erskine—Smith's messaging concentrates less on policy specifics and more on organization and capacity-building.

The landing page highlights sign-ups, volunteer recruitment, and strengthening networks across the province; “Help rebuild our politics in Ontario,” the page urges.

By organizing early, he can mobilize supporters, assess enthusiasm, and determine whether a second campaign would be viable, all without formally committing. In both the Substack post and the landing page, Erskine—Smith places heavy emphasis on civic engagement.

“The answer, as always, is participation,” he wrote, urging supporters to sign up, share the effort, and take part in shaping the party's direction.

That message aligns closely with his earlier provincial campaign, which framed renewal as something driven from the grassroots up rather than through traditional political structures.

What happens next?

The Ontario Liberal Party has not yet outlined a formal timeline for a leadership contest, and Erskine—Smith has not officially declared his candidacy.

But the combination of an exploratory website, team-building language, and public commentary suggests preparations are well underway.

If he launches a second bid, he would enter with more name recognition, a prior leadership network, and a clearer understanding of the internal dynamics of the race, while also facing questions about what would make this campaign different from his last.

For now, his pitch remains simple: build the team first, and decide from there.

Whether Liberal members see him as the figure capable of guiding the party back toward relevance—and potentially government—may become one of the defining questions as Ontario politics moves toward 2026.