NDP MP Becomes Fourth Opposition MP to Join Carney’s Liberals, Putting Government on Brink of Majority

The political realignment in Ottawa accelerated dramatically Tuesday night as NDP MP Lori Idlout became the fourth opposition member to cross the floor and join Prime Minister Mark Carney's Liberal government, leaving the new prime minister just two seats shy of a parliamentary majority.

Idlout's defection from the NDP caucus—announced by leader Don Davies in a tense late-night statement to NDP members—follows three Conservative MPs who previously aligned themselves with Carney's agenda, a pattern raising questions about the viability of the Conservative Party and the NDP as vehicles for serious governance in a moment of national crisis.

“We're very disappointed that Lori Idlout has decided to join the Liberal caucus,” Davies said, calling on Idlout to face her constituents in a byelection. “The position of the New Democrats on floor crossing is longstanding and clear. We believe that when someone rejects the decision of their electors and wants to join another party, they should put that decision to their voters.”

What Davies did not address is why a representative from Nunavut—a riding where the federal government plays an outsized role in daily life—would choose to remain on the opposition benches when Carney's team is actively building a national unity government to confront what the Prime Minister has called a “changed world.”

For those who have watched Northern politics closely, Idlout's move carries historical resonance. She now follows in the footsteps of Peter Ittinuar, the first Inuk MP, who also left the NDP for the Liberals in 1979 after concluding his former party wasn't delivering for Nunavut.

Idlout's decision to join Carney's team means the Liberals now hold 170 seats, with three by-elections scheduled for April, with two widely expected to fall to the governing party. Should the Liberals maintain Scarborough Southwest and University—Rosedale, Carney would command 172 votes, a bare majority in the 343-seat House.

Opposition in Disarray

For Pierre Poilievre's Conservatives and Don Davies' NDP alike, the steady stream of defections paints a picture of caucuses unable or unwilling to hold their members. Three Conservatives—including high-profile former critic Matt Jeneroux—have now crossed to the Liberals, each citing the gravity of the current moment and Carney’s steady leadership as factors in their decisions.

Davies, meanwhile, now leads an NDP caucus reduced in both numbers and influence, watching one of his most prominent Indigenous MPs choose the government benches over opposition purity.

Davies' call for Idlout to face a by-election echoes similar demands made when Conservative MPs crossed. But the political reality is more complicated: by-elections are expensive, time-consuming, and, in Idlout's case, would force Nunavut voters to return to the polls barely a year after the last federal election, this time in the middle of winter in a riding where fly-in access is limited.

Carney's government has shown no appetite for forcing such votes, arguing that MPs who cross retain their mandate to serve their constituents, simply under a different banner. It's a position that infuriates opposition parties but resonates with Canadians who tell pollsters they prioritize stability and results over procedural battles.

What Comes Next

With the spring by-elections now looming as the final piece of the majority puzzle, Carney is effectively one good night away from governing without handcuffs. A majority would allow him to pass budgets, implement his promised economic reset, and respond to external threats—particularly from a volatile U.S. administration—without negotiating with parties whose primary project is opposing him.

For Poilievre and Davies, the immediate challenge is existential: stop the bleeding, or watch more members conclude that the future of Canadian governance lies with the new Prime Minister, not in the opposition's fading corner.

The Leader of the Opposition has long argued that “Canada is broken.” The question, as more of his own MPs and others abandon ship, is whether voters will come to believe the party asking for their trust is broken, too.