Nate Erskine–Smith to seek Ontario Liberal nomination, plans shift from federal to provincial politics
Toronto MP Nathaniel Erskine–Smith is making a decisive return to provincial politics, announcing Tuesday he will seek the Ontario Liberal Party (OLP) nomination for the upcoming Scarborough Southwest by-election.
In a statement published on his Substack, the Beaches—East York MP framed the decision as a choice about where he can make the “biggest difference,” declaring that his primary goal is now to rebuild the provincial party.
“When it comes to Ontario, I'm all in,” Erskine–Smith wrote. He sharply criticized Premier Doug Ford's government as a “tired, incompetent, and self-dealing Conservative government.”
The move sets the stage for a high-profile candidate in a critical by-election, seen as a key test for the OLP under interim leader John Fraser. The party has been rebuilding since its devastating 2018 election loss and the following resignations of former leaders Stephen Del Duca and Bonnie Crombie after they lost their bids for seats in their own ridings in 2022 and 2025's provincial elections.
Erskine–Smith is a well-known figure in Ontario Liberal circles, having come within a razor-thin margin of winning the party's leadership in 2023. He lost to Crombie by just 1.1 percentage points on the final ballot of the ranked contest, establishing himself as a standard-bearer for the party's progressive wing.
His announcement clarifies a political future that has been the subject of widespread speculation. He confirmed he will continue to sit as a federal Liberal and support Prime Minister Mark Carney “in the meantime,” while launching his provincial campaign.
Simultaneously, he endorsed MPP Doly Begum to succeed Bill Blair as the Liberal candidate in the federal Scarborough Southwest by-election, calling her a “strong progressive representative.”
Focus On Rebuilding
The core of Erskine–Smith's message is a direct appeal to Ontarians dissatisfied with the Ford government.
“We deserve smart, fair, and honest leadership here in Ontario,” he wrote. “The answer is participation.”
He noted that rules for the upcoming OLP leadership race will be announced soon. He has been actively building a provincial campaign for months, stating his team has been “working hard to build a provincial team that’s ready to run, win, and govern together.”
Political observers suggest Erskine-Smith's early entry into a by-election is a strategic effort to build momentum and demonstrate electability ahead of the formal leadership campaign. If he wins the Scarborough Southwest nomination and the by-election, he would immediately become a frontrunner for the permanent leadership.
The Ford PC government has not yet set a date for the Scarborough Southwest by-election, which was triggered by the resignation of Doly Begum, who currently represents Scarborough Southwest on behalf of the Ontario NDP.
