ADAMS: No, Avi Lewis should not run in the Beaches—East York by-election. Here’s why.

For New Democrats both federally and in Alberta, Naheed Nenshi's announcement that he's abandoning Edmonton-Strathcona for a Calgary riding might quietly open one of the most intriguing doors they've seen in years. And it offers a moment to reconsider the pile-on Avi Lewis has endured for declining to throw himself into every available by-election.

I'll start with a confession; like plenty of others, I have relentlessly mocked Lewis for sitting out races. When he's passed on opportunities, including Alexandre Boulrice's seat that seemed tailor-made for Lewis's socialist politics, it was easy for me to roll my eyes. Liberal voices on Threads were especially loud, insisting Lewis had some moral duty to contest Beaches–East York to replace Nathaniel Erskine-Smith.

I joined in the sneering more than once, but in hindsight, I was being really unfair.

Despite the former Beaches MP's firm hold on his riding during the 2025 federal election, the Conservative Party candidate finished second while the NDP languished in the single digits. Running there as NDP leader would be a high-profile gamble with poor odds, and the likely outcome is an unnecessary early black eye. Similarly, the Quebec riding that Lewis wisely avoided is dominated by voters with sovereigntist instincts who are never going to embrace a Torontonian when the Bloc Québécois exist.

In retrospect, I think a big reason many Liberal supporters have been so vocal in pushing Lewis toward these unrealistic by-elections is that it gives them a convenient excuse to discredit him, no matter what. If he runs and loses, they can paint the NDP as irrelevant. If he declines, they can call him cowardly and out of touch. Either way, it serves their interest in keeping New Democrats weak and divided while the Carney Liberals consolidate power with their majority government.

Lewis has already lost a bid for a seat in British Columbia during the last election and doesn't enjoy the reservoir of goodwill Jack Layton had built before his early defeats. Expecting him to treat every by-election as a personal redemption tour ignores how Canadian politics actually works. Leaders who repeatedly lose visible contests don't build momentum; they erode it. Sometimes discretion really is the better part of valour.

That said, a party leader absent from the House of Commons for too long does start to look detached. Turning down seven by-elections (as of this writing) does lend credibility to the narrative that Lewis and some in his inner circle view actual constituency work as beneath them.

Voters have every right to feel uneasy about that. Jack Layton and Jagmeet Singh waited for their moments, too, but they didn't decline this volume of opportunities. Optics matter, and prolonged absence makes it harder for voters to picture Lewis as a plausible prime minister-in-waiting. The "there's a majority government anyways" excuse only goes so far before it starts to sound like entitlement.

But here's where the Nenshi development becomes genuinely interesting. The federal Edmonton Strathcona riding is the federal New New Democrat's strongest fortress in Alberta. In essence, it is to the NDP what Battle River—Crowfoot is to the Conservatives, or what Nepean is to the Liberals. If Lewis could secure the nomination, he'd enter Parliament with a solid base rather than a question mark.

The path isn't guaranteed, of course. Talk of a shuffle involving Heather McPherson crossing over to provincial politics is still speculative. McPherson is a formidable MP with deep local roots and she has performed well federally, even in tough years. But rumours of her interest in provincial opportunities have circulated for some time among New Democrats with executive connections.

Nenshi's decision to vacate the provincial Edmonton-Strathcona seat for Calgary creates a logical opening. Should McPherson pursue the provincial NDP nomination there—especially if her current endorsed candidate fails to get the seat during Alberta's next provincial election—it could cascade nicely into Lewis contesting McPherson's federal seat in a by-election sometime in 2027 or 2028.

I believe this is the move that makes sense. Unlike Beaches—East York or a Quebec long shot, Edmonton Strathcona offers Lewis a genuine chance to win without excuses. Winning there wouldn't erase his past losses, but it would silence much of the “he's avoiding voters” critique. Canadians have short memories when results start appearing, and as a sitting MP, even representing a riding outside his town of residence, Lewis would immediately carry more weight than an outsider leader issuing statements from the sidelines.

This matters beyond one man's career. The Carney Liberals currently enjoy uncontested momentum and a majority. Canada needs a functioning opposition that can hold them to account on cost of living, housing, and the direction of the country. A weakened NDP serving as little more than a protest footnote helps no one—least of all voters looking for alternatives. Lewis's rebuilding focus is understandable after the party's bruising 2025 results, but it cannot become permanent avoidance.

Nenshi himself illustrates the risks of perception. Despite his profile, his Calgary move after winning in Edmonton has already invited carpetbagger accusations. Alberta voters aren't stupid; they notice when politicians treat ridings as temporary stepping stones. Lewis has a chance to avoid that trap by aiming for a seat where he can actually build something lasting.

I still think critics have legitimate points about timing and visibility, but context is everything. Not every by-election is worth fighting, especially when the terrain is hostile. If the Edmonton Strathcona opportunity materializes as many insiders quietly expect, Avi Lewis should take it.

Parliament needs a real opposition voice and a leader with a mandate from actual voters carries far more authority than one who remains permanently on the outside looking in. The coming months will test whether Lewis and the NDP can turn strategic patience into concrete progress. For Canada's sake, let's hope they do.

This piece was written by an individual contributor and reflects the editorial position of The Provincial Times. Read our Content Policy here.